World War II dramatically changed the then existing world order.
Based on three fundamental pillars of democracy, free trade and capitalism, America the only great power that survived the war with its economy and market intact became the de facto world leader of the non communist world.
American leadership established this new world order at The Bretton Woods Conference, 1944. This 'order' based on a number or global institutions ensured under the Marshall plan the rebuilding of the world economy.
American farsightedness and actions produced the greatest material prosperity in history. World GDP has grown 10 fold, population has increased 3 fold, Colonialism ended, and there has been a dramatic reduction in world poverty, with a corresponding improvement in health has been observed. Communism was mostly defeated.
America, currently the sole superpower, dominates the world financially, technologically, socially, politically and militarily. By virtue of emerging as the world's undisputed leader, America has undertaken the cost, leadership and the supporter of all the great multilateral institutions that supports the existing global order.
With leadership power comes a certain swagger, an arrogance and unpleasantness. Every effective leader is either loved or hated, but is always feared. America is no different. To ensure that the global order is maintained as per their leadership America, has taken upon itself, the responsibility of being the policeman of the world.
To remain the undisputed leader America has many strategies and plans.
America has 6 unchanging strategic objectives to ensuring a peaceful global order under continuing American leadership, focussed on global material prosperity while opposing violent and disruptive ideologies that threaten this prosperity and peace.
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America has no permanent friends or enemies, they only have permanent interests.
American interests and compulsions change very very slowly, if at all.
Style and pace of American political leadership may change. However the establishment's plans to remain, the only superpower in the 21st Century will never change.
Six key objectives for preserving global order, under American leadership in the 21st Century.
1. Security and prosperity of Israel.
2. Ensure global freedom to develop technology, raw materials and energy resources, their supply and open access to markets.
3. Secure universal freedom of movement across all major supply channels and trade routes. Particularly pipelines, waterways & shipping lanes.
4. Contain political and militant Islam
5. Contain the power of Russia, America's only military superpower rival.
6. Contain the power of Communist China, that defies global order which threatens peace and prosperity of all other nations.
America is able to maintain a world order only because it has cultivated powerful and loyal allies and supporters.
America's capitalistic philosophy is always about give and take. If there is a country that America depends on more than any other for supporting America in the most violent and volatile region of the world, the Middle East, it is Israel.
Israel depends heavily on America for its security and prosperity and Israel is a provider of a wide range of high technology products and , local security. This is a long term mutually beneficial win-win arrangement for both, America and Israel.
This marriage is not one of choice for America nor for Israel, it is a compulsion.
Before World War II, any nation that wanted a resource or an access to a market, and it possessed the necessary military power, simply went and seized the resources and forced their way into markets. Called 'Colonialism' mostly European countries and Japan indulged in this practice.
After World War II, America ensured that colonialism was abolished to be replaced by a more equitable, transparent and vibrant global trading order. In this case the individual countries had sovereign ownership of their lands and resources. Force was now replaced with negotiations irrespective of power and size. For this organisations like World Trade Organisation, etc were established.
The existing global order is designed to ensure that any nation could buy anything from any other nation, transport it wherever they liked, manufacture what they wanted and sell it where ever they desired at whatever price they liked, as easily as possible and without fear. As unpleasant and expensive as it may be, America polices the world trade routes.
This is why America has powerful armed forces both at home and [stationed in nearly 800 bases across the world in 70 countries financed by a defence budget greater than the next 7 largest armed forces in the world. America has ensured that many countries including many nations even Japan and Germany come under the American security umbrella and hence freed from investing much in their defence budgets.
Take for example if one considers the capabilities of all the navies of the world including their current expansion rates. Their combined capacity would equal to current American naval capabilities by the year 2240.
Islamic invasions, Colonialism and Communism have caused great harm but the greatest harm they have caused are the redrawing the boundaries of countries and regions. Centuries old people and cultures were either broken up into fragments or they were clubbed together ensuring continuous anguish and conflict.
The greatest mess has been created in the area of the Middle East and North Africa, the territory of the former Ottoman empire and the Indian sub continent home to the vast majority of the world's Muslims.
Post Colonialism these somewhat free countries have come under the influence of radical Islam, which promotes societal violence. This makes these societies violent, and unstable not only within their boundaries but much beyond to the wider world.
It appears that America is against Islam, but this is not true. It supports secular Islam in a democratic environment.
Islam as practised is seen as total religion which combines political, military, economic, scientific and religious teachings under the total control of clerics. This is at odds with secularism.Either Islam like Christianity must come of age, or the world order must change.
The conflict is really a struggle between clerics and Muslims themselves. Should the people or should the clerics, decide on military and political matters.
Since the clerics usually adopt the most radical and socially violent approach, America sees these clerics and regimes as a menace and threat to world peace and prosperity.
The term superpower is used too loosely. A military superpower is one that can effectively project force anywhere in the world whenever it chooses to do so. The only country other than America that can do that is Russia.
Russia is not a threat to global peace and prosperity, and its no more a communist state.
However Russian military capabilities poses a real and present counter to American military and geopolitical leadership, and could explain why Russia is being targeted for containment by America.
It is quite likely this containment objective is born more from historical considerations rather than future threats, by an American bureaucracy and military trying to maintain their power base. In due course of time it is quite likely that Russia will actively collaborate with America to maintain the world order.
There are actually two Chinas.
Communist ruled Mainland China known as People's Republic of China and the democratic, [Republic of China known more popularly as Taiwan.
The PRC ruled by the Chinese Communist Party is a ruthless, violent, political party which operates a government, military and economy that significantly ignores and disregards the global order for trade, peace and prosperity. The CCP rule empowers and enriches only its own members while denying freedom not only to its own citizens, but indulges in neo-colonialism. China is allegedly the world's leading nuclear proliferator, sponsor of terrorism and facilitator of the narcotics trade.
What we are now witnessing is an aggressive push back, by almost the entire world led by America against China. The world has already started hanging up on China and making alternate arrangements. Complete decoupling could take between 5 to 10 years.
When the world's lenders calls in the humongous debt owed to them by China, and as export income from exports plummet, CCP will face great stress in keeping afloat their economy. Under the global assault on China's CCP, the PLA and its various arms it is quite likely that the CCP will collapse very soon and probably within a couple of years.
China imports 80% of its food requirements, raw materials and energy requirements, and an implosion and fragmentation of China seems a certainity.
This is because the people will rise up, and pull down the CCP and its various arms like the PLA destroying the CCP and its rule. The CCP is aware and frightened by this possibility and spends more money on controlling their own citizens than on external defence.
China a 5,000 year old civilisation will be reborn, and like all birth it will be traumatic.
Summary:
Whether one likes or not America will remain the world's dominating leader. Countries must partner with America if they wish to develop their economies and bring material prosperity to their populations.
The world will shake but will survive this current cataclysm. We should brace ourselves for this eventuality and also prepare for a new and exciting new chapter in world history.
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GuruWonder Blog
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